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These metrics are only proxies for what we want (human outcomes), and noisy types also (supplied the little impact sizes we expect from random medicine-if any standard drug were being a fountain of youth which halted aging, somebody would have found by now!). The markets are still modest, remarkably fragmented over each and every cohort and drug, with small individual incentive to trade, and not a great deal gambling pleasurable. Alternately, if the logic of deal owners paying each other doesn’t pretty do the job out, it can be in between the investigation organization and agreement entrepreneurs: contracts spend up front the price tag of a mouse and how to get girls on omegle a drug, and the investigation firm pays a smaller dividend every day the mouse stays alive, pegged to be split-even at imply baseline mouse lifespan. A prediction market on individual mouse-days would resemble an actively-traded tontine: perhaps each individual day a portion of the starting up benefit gets paid out amongst proprietors of every drug, until selling prices rebalance? 95% of cat homeowners have no plan there is everything besides catnip for cats, and the remainder really don’t know in which to get the choices: valerian is not advertised significantly for cats, I have to improve my own thyme, and I have no thought where by to get the far more obscure ones like Zinziba.

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